Econophysics
and
Phynance
Obnoxious Liberals
by Jean Michel Basquiat (1982)
"If I had my life to live over again, I would elect to be a trader of goods rather than a
student of science. I think barter is a noble thing."
- Albert Einstein.
"How could one describe and understand the movement of prices? Physics has
always been concerned with dynamics, the way things change with time. It was
the tried-and-true exemplar of successful theories and models. And physicists
and engineers were jacks-of-all-trades, simultaneously skilled mathematicians,
modelers, and computer programmers who prided themselves on their ability to
adapt to new fields and put their knowledge into practice. Wall Street began
to beckon them. In the 1980's, so many physicists flocked to investment banks
that one headhunter I know referred to them as POW'S - Physicists On Wall
Street."
- Emanuel Derman from My Life as a Quant - Reflections on Physics
and Finance
The narrative ends with the author leaving Wall St. after realising that
"everyone I knew who had been an investment banker for a few years,
including me, was an asshole."
- Frank Portnoy from F.I.A.S.C.O
There is a new book (2008) which includes an essay on physicists and Wall Street called
Physicists on Wall Street and Other Essays on Science and Society by Jeremy
Bernstein. Neither the reviewer from
Nature - "The two cultures of Wall Street" -
nor from
The
Times Higher Education was particularly impressed with Bernstein's musings on
physicists and high finance. Bernstein wrote an earlier (2004) essay on the topic
for Commentary magazine
called
The Einsteins of Wall Street
[PDF].
There are a couple of interesting
reader letters responding to the piece. One was from above quoted Emanuel Derman. He was a
theoretical physicist who switched to the financial world and wrote the wonderful book
about it -
My Life as a Quant - Reflections on Physics and Finance. Finally, while on the topic
of books, I believe the 1999 classic
The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their
Way to a Fortune on Wall Street is still relevant. See also some reviews of the book
such as Vanishing Crystal
Ball Gives Way to the Best Black Box in the Industry and
Using Chaos
to Make a Bundle.
Commentaries by Paul Krugman on economics and mathematical modeling include
'Deconstructing' Hostility to Economic Ideas and
Ricardo's Difficult Idea.
For physicists interested in moving into finance there is
Finance
for Physicists, a website set up and maintained by
Nigel Goldenfeld
a physics professor at the University of Illinois.
From the 2000 Times Higher Education magazine there's the story
First year's salary: Pounds 23m.
Econophysics websites:
Econophysics Academic Programs:
The
Econophysics Colloquium series is named after a famous
conference held in Berlin in 1920, attended only by young physicists. Among
them, there were Niels Bohr, Lise Meitner and Otto Hahn, who played an
important role in the development of quantum mechanics and nuclear physics.
Note that there is also a conference
Econophysics: Trends & Challenges that was held at the
Neils Bohr Institute (!) in May of 2008.
See Econophysics:
Historical Perspectives (February, 2008) for more details on the
"continuous cross-fertilization between economics and physics that has
been active in the last centuries." (I didn't find this link all that
informative but keep it here for completeness.)
There was also a dedicated
Computing for Finance conference held at CERN on
November 21, 2007,
which was specifically aimed at how to use the Grid for financial computing.
Here are some articles on Econophysics and Phynance from the popular to
the scientific press.
Systemic risk in banking ecosystems - Nature, January 20, 2011.
Here's Why Econophysics Will Never Work, Though Traders May Dream
- Business Insider, August 16, 2010.
'Econophysics' points way to fair salaries in free market - Purdue News, July 12, 2010.
Econophysicist
Accurately Forecasts Gold Price Collapse - Technology Review, June 2, 2010.
Predicting Economic Crises With 'Econophysics' - Science Daily, May 11, 2010.
They
Tried to Outsmart Wall Street - March 9, 2009, New York Times.
Why
Oh Why Can't We Have Better Econophysics? - a rant "about the horrors of
physicists trying to do economics, by someone who used to be more
sympathetic, but has since left physics, and has no credentials in
economics."
Econophysics - December 11, 2005,
New York Times.
A GuidedWalk DownWall Street:
An Introduction to Econophysics - September, 2004,
The Brazilian
Journal of Physics
Physics of Personal Income - February 26, 2002,
physicsworld.com.
Econophysics - October 7, 1998,
Physics News Update.
The following is a sampling of "web-accessable" papers
from the arXiv
e-print archive on Econophysics and Phynance. There is also the
Quantitative Finance
(q-fin) archive. Some of these papers are more pure mathematics (but I
included them anyway) and some are presumably utter nonsense since they are
not refereed.
The Effect of Growth On Equality
in Models of the Economy - May, 2013
A Model for Scaling in Firms'
Size and Growth Rate Distribution - April, 2013
Jan Tinbergen's legacy for economic
networks: from the gravity model to quantum statistics - April, 2013
Do wealth distributions follow power
laws? Evidence from "rich lists" - April, 2013
Bridging stylized facts in finance
and data non-stationarities - February, 2013
On the global economic potentials and
marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price dynamics of energy commodities
- September, 2012
Physical approach to price momentum
and its application to momentum strategy - August, 2012
Distribution Of Wealth In A Network
Model Of The Economy - August, 2012
Application of Chaotic Number Generators
in Econophysics - October, 2011
Dynamics of Bid-ask Spread Return and
Volatility of the Chinese Stock Market - October, 2011
A semi-Markov model with memory for price
changes - September, 2011
Deterministic chaos in government debt
dynamics with mechanistic primary balance rules - September, 2011
From microscopic taxation and redistribution
models to macroscopic income distributions - September, 2011
Individual impact of agent actions
in financial markets - September, 2011
Antipersistent dynamics in kinetic models
of wealth exchange - August, 2011
Why is order flow so persistent?
- August, 2011
Econophysics: A Brief Review of
Historical Development, Present Status and Future Trends - August, 2011
Econophysics: Bridges over a Turbulent
Current - July, 2011
Identification of clusters of
investors from their real trading activity in a financial market - July, 2011
On the Zipf strategy for short-term
investments in WIG20 futures - July, 2011
Quantum Financial Economics
- Risk and Returns - July, 2011
Scaling properties of first-passage
time probabilities in financial markets - July, 2011
Renyi's information transfer
between financial time series - June, 2011
Maximum entropy distribution of
stock price fluctuations - June, 2011
Proportionate vs disproportionate
distribution of wealth of two individuals in a tempered Paretian ensemble
- June, 2011
Applications of a constrained
mechanics methodology in economics - June, 2011
Financial factor influence on scaling
and memory of trading volume in stock market - June, 2011
The "S" Curve Relationship between
Export Diversity and Economic Size of Countries - May, 2011
The formation of share market
prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge - May, 2011
The foreign exchange market:
return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and Epps effect
- May, 2011
Contextual Risk and Its Relevance
in Economics - May, 2011
Anomalous price impact and the
critical nature of liquidity in financial markets - May, 2011
Maximum Gain Round Trips with
Cost Constraints - May, 2011
Rational and actual behavior in
lowest unique bid auctions - May, 2011
Robustness and Contagion in the
International Financial Network - April, 2011
Full characterization of the
fractional Poisson process - April, 2011
Do firms share the same functional
form of their growth rate distribution? A new statistical test - March, 2011
Record statistics for biased
random walks, with an application to financial data - March, 2011
Scaling and Hierarchy in Urban
Economies - February, 2011
Black swans or dragon kings? A
simple test for deviations from the power law - February, 2011
Predicting economic market crises
using measures of collective panic - February, 2011
Adelic theory of stock market
- February, 2011
Capitalist Science
- February, 2011
Quantifying and Modeling
Long-Range Cross-Correlations in Multiple Time Series with Applications to World
Stock Indices - February, 2011
The US stock market leads the
Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields - February, 2011
Predicted and verified evolution
of power-law exponent in product market - January, 2011
An Econophysics Model for the
Stock-Markets' Analysis and Diagnosis - January, 2011
Econophysical Approaches for
the Direct Foreign Investments - January, 2011
Macrostate Parameter and
Investment Risk Diagrams for 2008 and 2009 - January, 2011
Competitive market for multiple
firms and economic crisis - October, 2010
Stratified economic exchange
on networks - October, 2010
On the coupled evolution of
inflation, wealth and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide
- October, 2010
Structure and Response in
the World Trade Network - October, 2010
Equilibrium distributions in
gas-like economic models: an analytical derivation - October, 2010
How sensitive are equilibrium
pricing models to real-world distortions? - October, 2010
A quantum model for stock
market - September, 2010
Quantitative law describing
market dynamics before and after interest-rate change - September, 2010
Google matrix of business
process management - September, 2010
Coherent Patterns in Nuclei
and in Financial Markets - September, 2010
House Price Distributions of
Taiwan: A Preliminary Study - August, 2010
Emergence of Universal
Scaling in Financial Markets from Mean-field Dynamics - June, 2010
Boltzmann Legacy and Wealth
Distribution - May, 2010
An Empirical Study of the
Tails of Mutual Fund Size - May, 2010
Note on Log-periodic
Description of 2008 Financial Crash - May, 2010
Persistent Collective Trend
in Stock Markets - May, 2010
Fifteen years of econophysics:
worries, hopes and prospects - April, 2010
WARNING: Physics Envy May Be
Hazardous To Your Wealth! - March, 2010
Large-volatility Dynamics in
Financial Markets - February, 2010
Adaptive Financial Networks
with Static and Dynamic Thresholds - February, 2010
Scale Invariant Properties of
Public Debt Growth - February, 2010
Should Economists Adopt Methods
from Physics? - February, 2010
Traders' Collective Portfolio
Optimization with Transaction Costs: Towards Microscopic Validation of Agent-based
Models - January, 2010
Is the European Monetary System
Converging to Integration? - January, 2010
The Level Crossing Analysis of German
Stock Market Index (DAX) and Daily Oil Price Time Series - January, 2010
An Economic analogy to
Electrodynamics - January, 2010
Financial Crises and the
Evaporation of Trust - November, 2009
Simplified Model of the
Wealth Game in the Absence of Market-Makers - October, 2009
Has the World Economy Reached
its Globalization Limit? - October, 2009
New Perspectives in the
Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics Approach to Social and Economic Sciences
- October, 2009
Analysing and Controlling the
Tax Evasion Dynamics via Majority-vote Model - October, 2009
The Building Blocks of Economic
Complexity - September, 2009
The Multi-Network of International
Trade: A Commodity-Specific Analysis - August, 2009
Communicability and Communities in
Complex Socio-Economic Networks - July, 2009
Relativistic Quantum Econophysics
- New Paradigms in Complex Systems Modelling - July, 2009
The Peter Principle
Revisited: A Computational Study - July, 2009
Economic Interactions
and the Distribution of Wealth - June, 2009
Dynamical Clustering
of Exchange Rates - May, 2009
Dynamical Clustering
of Exchange Rates - May, 2009
Trading leads to
Scale-free Self-organization - May, 2009
Class Formation in a
Social Network with Asset Exchange - May, 2009
Statistical Properties
of Fluctuations: A Method to Check Market Behavior - May, 2009
Microeconomics of the
Ideal Gas like Market Models - May, 2009
Income and Poverty in a
Developing Economy - May, 2009
A Statistical Analysis
of Product Prices in Online Markets - May, 2009
The Statistical
Relationship between Product Life Cycle and Repeat Purchase Behavior in Convenience
Stores - May, 2009
Correlations, Risk and
Crisis: From Physiology to Finance - May, 2009
Word-of-mouth and
Dynamical Inhomogeneous Markets: Efficiency Measure and Optimal Sampling
Policies for the Pre-launch Stage - April, 2009
Doves and Hawks in
Economics Revisited. An Evolutionary Quantum Game Theory-based Analysis of
Financial Crises - April, 2009
The Size Variance
Relationship of Business Firm Growth Rates - April, 2009
The (Unfortunate)
Complexity of the Economy - April, 2009
Predator-Prey Model
for Stock Market Fluctuations - March, 2009
Interest Rate Change
and Omori Dynamics in the Stock Market - March, 2009
The Role of a Matchmaker in
Buyer-vendor Interactions - February, 2009
Quantum Theory of
Economics - January, 2009
A Biophysical Approach
to Production Theory - January, 2009
Kinetic Models for
Wealth Exchange on Directed Networks - January, 2009
An Analysis of the
Japanese Credit Network - January, 2009
Superstatistical
Fluctuations in Time Series: Applications to Share Price Dynamics and
Turbulence - January, 2009
Agent-Based Model Approach
to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy - January, 2009
From Physics to
Economics: An Econometric Example Using Maximum Relative Entropy
- January, 2009
The Spread of the
Credit Crisis: View from a Stock Correlation Network
- January, 2009
Economic Models with
Chaotic Money Exchange - January, 2009
The Distribution
of Landed Property - January, 2009
Evidence for the
Gompertz Curve in the Income Distribution of Brazil 1978-2005
- December, 2008
Computational Modeling
of Collective Human Behavior: Example of Financial Markets
- December, 2008
Mathematics Underlying
the 2008 Financial Crisis, and a Possible Remedy
- November, 2008
Effect of Changing
Data Size on Eigenvalues in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets
- November, 2008
Fluctuations of Company
Yearly Profits versus Scaled Revenue: Fat Tail Distribution of Levy Type
- November, 2008
Dynamical Theory of Price
and Money in Volatile Markets. A Physicist's Reaction to Economics
- November, 2008
Transition from Pareto to
Boltzmann-Gibbs Behavior in a Deterministic Economic Model
- November, 2008
Classical Logical
versus Quantum Conceptual Thought: Examples in Economy, Decision theory
and Concept Theory - October, 2008
Economics need(s) a
Scientific Revolution - October, 2008
Breakdown of the
Mean-field Approximation in a Wealth Distribution Model
- September, 2008
Random Walker in a
Temporally Deforming Higher-order Potential Forces Observed in
Financial Crisis - August, 2008
Taxes in a Simple
Wealth Distribution Model by Inelastically Scattering Particles
- July, 2008
Interdisciplinarity in
Socio-economics, Mathematical Analysis and Predictability of Complex Systems
- July, 2008
Time Evolution of the
Mutual Fund Size Distribution - July, 2008
Learning from Physics
Education Research: Lessons for Economics Education - July, 2008
EconoThermodynamics,
or the World Economy "Thermal Death" Paradox - July, 2008
Klein - Gordon
Equation for Market Wealth Operations - June, 2008
The Question of
Relaxation in the Wealth Exchange Models - June, 2008
The 2006-2008 Oil
Bubble and Beyond - June, 2008
A Multi-agent-based
Approach to Tax Morals - June, 2008
Role of Scaling in
the Statistical Modeling of Finance - April, 2008
Correlations in
Commodity Markets - March, 2008
The Thermodynamic
Approach to Market - March, 2008
Gamma-distribution and
Wealth Inequality - February, 2008
Analysing Tax Evasion
Dynamics via the Ising Model - January, 2008
Short-time Behaviour of
Demand and Price Viewed Through an Exactly Solvable Model for Heterogeneous
Interacting Market Agents - December, 2007
Wealth distribution in a
System with Wealth-limited Interactions - October, 2007
Reinforcement
Learning in Market Games - October, 2007
Projective Market
Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making - September, 2007
The Relativistic
Velocity Addition Law Optimizes a Forecast Gambler's Profit
- September, 2007
Quantum Auctions:
Facts and Myths - September, 2007
A Brief History of
Economics: An Outsider's Account - September, 2007
Kinetic Exchange
Models for Income and Wealth Distributions - September, 2007
Time Reversal Invariance
in Finance - August, 2007
Economic Amplifier -
A New Econophysics Mode - July, 2007
Econophysics
and Financial-Economic Monitoring - July, 2007
EGT through Quantum
Mechanics & from Statistical Physics to Economics - May, 2007
The Tick-by-tick
Dynamical Consistency of Price Impact in Limit Order Books
- February, 2007
Coupled
Continuous Time Random Walks in Finance - August, 2006
A Natural Value
Unit - Econophysics as Arbiter between Finance and Economics
- August, 2006
Models of Wealth
Distributions: A Perspective - April, 2006
Generic Features
of the Wealth Distribution in Ideal-gas-like Markets - March, 2006
Nonequilibrium
Thermodynamics of Wealth Condensation - January, 2006
Applications of
Physics to Finance and Economics: Returns, Trading Activity and Income
- July, 2005
Economics: The
Next Physical Science? - June, 2005
Detailed Simulation
Results for Some Wealth Distribution Models in Econophysic
- April, 2005
Quantum Game
Theory in Finance - July, 2004
The CTRW in
Finance: Direct and Inverse Problems with some Generalizations and
Extensions - August, 2003
Quantum Finance - March, 2002
Exponential and
Power-law Probability Distributions of Wealth and Income in the United Kingdom
and the United States - March, 2001
Combustion Models
in Finance - January, 2001
Statistical
Mechanics of Money - August, 2000
Gauge Physics
of Finance: Simple Introduction - November, 1998
[Scott Menary]
[High Energy Physics]
[Physics & Astronomy]
[Graduate Program]
[York University]
menary@yorku.ca